Casino Theo Win

admin 4/12/2022

The casino industry’s methods of analyzing gaming devices are based on metrics, such as win per unit per day or theoretical win per unit per day. In this article we dig into two types of metrics, optimization and outcome, and we show why traditional outcome metrics, such as theo win. Theoretical win is derived from the probabilities built into any casino game. As all casino games are designed (in theory) to guarantee a return to the casino, the theoretical win (winnings for the player) is always negative while the expected value, also known as expectation (winnings for the casino) is always positive.

Confusion about Win Rate. There are all kinds of percentages in the world of gaming. Win percentage, theoretical win percentage, hold percentage, and house advantage come to mind. Sometimes casino bosses use these percentages interchangeably, as if they are just different names for the same thing.
Casino operators tend to look at a theoretical measurement when determining a reinvestment strategy because it eliminates the swing of actual good or bad luck on any one visit. As marketers, we typically look to 'actual' win or loss as a secondary option for determining a reinvestment strategy.
The “theo” or “theoretical” is the actual dollar amount the casino expects to win from the player. The “return to player” measures the fraction of the player’s total wagers the player is paid back in live casino play.

How often is it you meet a 3rd party service provider or even an agency that doesn't know your lingo? ADT, theo win, slot occupancy – these are just few terms that are tossed around daily by casino executives, marketing teams and database marketing departments. We get it, we know your language, and we're here to help.

If you're new to gaming or training new employees, please refer to the below glossary of casino marketing terms. This list should help make meetings and casual conversations with casino industry veterans less stressful.

A
Acquisition
The process of acquiring new guests. In gaming this refers to gathering new player’s club members.
Active
Player’s club members that have played within a certain time period, usually in the last 12 months.
Actual Win
The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'casino win.'
ADT
Average Daily Theoretical win (See Theoretical win).
B
Bonus Points
Points that are not earned but rather awarded based on a promotion or event.
C
Carded Play
The portion of total gaming revenue that was tracked using player’s club cards.
Casino Win
The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'actual win.'
Coin-in
Total bets cycled through a machine that includes both cash-in and credits played. Also referred to as ‘bet,’ ‘handle’ or ‘wager.’ Total coin-in reflects both carded and non-carded coin-in. Carded coin-in reflects only coin-in generated using a players club card.
Core Program
Regular monthly life-cycle program. (Acquisition, Loyalty, Downtrender, Recapture, Birthday, etc.)
Criteria
The selected parameters that need to be met to receive an offer or enter a tier or segment.
D
Database
All player data collected through the player's club, including gaming data, demographics,preferences, etc.
Demographics
Characteristics such as annual income, age, sex, distance to the casino, etc., which can be used to project or influence behavior.
Direct Mail
Mail programs in which offers are targeted to guests based on specific, pre-selected criteria with a specific marketing goal (acquisition, retention, reactivation, etc.). Can include email as well.
Downtrender
A player’s club member whose current play is lower based on Twin per month or quarter than it has been in the past. This can be attributed to a loss in frequency or spend.
F
Frequency
How frequently (often) a player visits and has activity. Trips in a distinct time period can also define this.
G
Goal
The purpose toward which an endeavor is directed. The state of affairs that a plan is intended to achieve and that (when achieved) terminates behavior intended to achieve it; “the ends justify the means.” Most gaming program goals involve Acquisition, Retention/Loyalty, Stretch, Recapture.
H
Hold
The amount the game or group of games made for the organization. This is based on game type, skill level, odds and system settings.
Hotel Occupancy
The amount of rooms occupied/sold expressed in a percentage of those available.
I
Incremental Win
The difference between win that normally would have occurred based on a guest’s RFM score (see RFM definition below) and win when provided with a stimulus (i.e.: a coupon).
K
Key Metrics
Identified areas of measurement that are considered high priority in analyzing operational performance.
L
Layering
Creating offers and promotions in such a way as to allow players to redeem multiple things in one trip/day.
M
Marketing
Everything involved in the movement or sale of goods.
Marketing Mix
The percentages and dollars budgeted to each sub department in the overall marketing department.
Market Share
The amount of Guests that patronize our casino vs. visiting other casinos in the area.
Member File
The entire database of player’s club members; all enrolled members including active and non-active.
Modeling
Identifying particular demographics that model a particular behavior such as gaming characteristics. Used primarily in determining acquisition efforts.
N
New Members
New patrons joining the player's club database.
Non-Active/Inactive
Player’s club members on our member file who have not played within a specified time period.
O
Offer Redemption Percentage
The quantity of players that redeem a specific offer expressed against the total number of offers distributed. (total offers redeemed / total offers issued = offer redemption percentage)
P
Player Development
This definition varies widely; it is used to describe the internal department and functionality of casino hosts. In actuality, it is everything involved in increasing loyalty and therefore the RFM of each player. This includes one-to-one service, personalized benefits, direct mail offers and copy, etc.
Player Type
Usually used as a stratification tool based on distance of residence or by arrival type. Examples include local, junket (bus), group (convention), destination, etc.
Postforma
A document that measures the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and revenue. Preforma is a similar document that is used for forecasting a program's profitability.
Preforma
A document that projects the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and forecasted revenue. Postforma is a similar document that is used for measuring acutal profitability of a program.
Profit Margin
The percentage of expense compared to revenue. Net Revenue / Gross Revenue = X%
R
Reactivation
The process of attracting guests who have not played for an extended period of time, but at one point were active.
Recency
A method of measurement that identifies how recently a wager or purchase has been made.
Response Rate
The quantity of players who responded to an offer expressed against the total group of players issued offer(s). (total player responders / total number of players who received offer(s) = response rate)
Retention
The process of retaining current guests on the member file. The period of time used depends on the overall RFM of the member file. This sometimes means re-activating members from the member file that have become inactive. Reactivating members is 1/3 of the cost of Acquisition.
RFM
Recency, Frequency, Spend. A common method of assessing value of customers through recency, frequency and spend. Spend refers not only to the wager amount but also the items/services purchased.
S
Script or Point Redemption
The financial term for the cost of the cash back redemption. It is generally one of the larger expense items.
Segments
Defined groups within the database based on recent play and used to determine the offers the patron will qualify for.
Share
The portion of the spending that occurs at our facility vs. other entertainment organizations.
Slot Occupancy
A plan of action intended to accomplish a specific goal, using all the forces to execute approved plans as effectively as possible.
Stratification
To divide guests into a series of graded statuses or classes; i.e. dividing the database into tiered segments based on player type, etc.
T
Tactical (Tactical Execution)
An expedient for achieving a goal; a maneuver of less long-term significance than strategic operations or strategy.
Theoretical Win (or Theo Win or Twin)
The amount that the casino should win in theory, based on hold percentage and the random number generator or game type/odds. (coin-in x hold = theoretical win)
Tiers
Most often used to describe the defined groups within the player's club structure based on play and used to determine player's club benefits.
Trip(s)/Days
The frequency measure used in gaming. A defined period of time that starts when the player’s club card has been inserted and there has been play. The length of a trip and associated parameters vary widely.

Casino Theo Winners

Casino Theo Win Loss

A
Acquisition
The process of acquiring new guests. In gaming this refers to gathering new player’s club members.
Active
Player’s club members that have played within a certain time period, usually in the last 12 months.
Actual Win
The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'casino win.'
ADT
Average Daily Theoretical win (See Theoretical win).
B
Bonus Points
Points that are not earned but rather awarded based on a promotion or event.
C
Carded Play
The portion of total gaming revenue that was tracked using player’s club cards.
Casino Win
The monetary amount the casino actually wins from a player. There can be a large discrepancy from theoretical win (Twin) if someone hits a jackpot or if there is a savvy table games player. Also known as 'actual win.'
Coin-in
Total bets cycled through a machine that includes both cash-in and credits played. Also referred to as ‘bet,’ ‘handle’ or ‘wager.’ Total coin-in reflects both carded and non-carded coin-in. Carded coin-in reflects only coin-in generated using a players club card.
Core Program
Regular monthly life-cycle program. (Acquisition, Loyalty, Downtrender, Recapture, Birthday, etc.)
Criteria
The selected parameters that need to be met to receive an offer or enter a tier or segment.
D
Database
All player data collected through the player's club, including gaming data, demographics,preferences, etc.
Demographics
Characteristics such as annual income, age, sex, distance to the casino, etc., which can be used to project or influence behavior.
Direct Mail
Mail programs in which offers are targeted to guests based on specific, pre-selected criteria with a specific marketing goal (acquisition, retention, reactivation, etc.). Can include email as well.
Downtrender
A player’s club member whose current play is lower based on Twin per month or quarter than it has been in the past. This can be attributed to a loss in frequency or spend.
F
Frequency
How frequently (often) a player visits and has activity. Trips in a distinct time period can also define this.
G
Goal
The purpose toward which an endeavor is directed. The state of affairs that a plan is intended to achieve and that (when achieved) terminates behavior intended to achieve it; “the ends justify the means.” Most gaming program goals involve Acquisition, Retention/Loyalty, Stretch, Recapture.
H
Hold
The amount the game or group of games made for the organization. This is based on game type, skill level, odds and system settings.
Hotel Occupancy
The amount of rooms occupied/sold expressed in a percentage of those available.
I
Incremental Win
The difference between win that normally would have occurred based on a guest’s RFM score (see RFM definition below) and win when provided with a stimulus (i.e.: a coupon).
K
Key Metrics
Identified areas of measurement that are considered high priority in analyzing operational performance.
L
Layering
Creating offers and promotions in such a way as to allow players to redeem multiple things in one trip/day.
M
Marketing
Everything involved in the movement or sale of goods.
Marketing Mix
The percentages and dollars budgeted to each sub department in the overall marketing department.
Market Share
The amount of Guests that patronize our casino vs. visiting other casinos in the area.
Member File
The entire database of player’s club members; all enrolled members including active and non-active.
Modeling
Identifying particular demographics that model a particular behavior such as gaming characteristics. Used primarily in determining acquisition efforts.
N
New Members
New patrons joining the player's club database.
Non-Active/Inactive
Player’s club members on our member file who have not played within a specified time period.
O
Offer Redemption Percentage
The quantity of players that redeem a specific offer expressed against the total number of offers distributed. (total offers redeemed / total offers issued = offer redemption percentage)
P
Player Development
This definition varies widely; it is used to describe the internal department and functionality of casino hosts. In actuality, it is everything involved in increasing loyalty and therefore the RFM of each player. This includes one-to-one service, personalized benefits, direct mail offers and copy, etc.
Player Type
Usually used as a stratification tool based on distance of residence or by arrival type. Examples include local, junket (bus), group (convention), destination, etc.
Postforma
A document that measures the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and revenue. Preforma is a similar document that is used for forecasting a program's profitability.
Preforma
A document that projects the profitability of a specific program. This includes all program-specific expenses and forecasted revenue. Postforma is a similar document that is used for measuring acutal profitability of a program.
Profit Margin
The percentage of expense compared to revenue. Net Revenue / Gross Revenue = X%
R
Reactivation
The process of attracting guests who have not played for an extended period of time, but at one point were active.
Recency
A method of measurement that identifies how recently a wager or purchase has been made.
Response Rate
The quantity of players who responded to an offer expressed against the total group of players issued offer(s). (total player responders / total number of players who received offer(s) = response rate)
Retention
The process of retaining current guests on the member file. The period of time used depends on the overall RFM of the member file. This sometimes means re-activating members from the member file that have become inactive. Reactivating members is 1/3 of the cost of Acquisition.
RFM
Recency, Frequency, Spend. A common method of assessing value of customers through recency, frequency and spend. Spend refers not only to the wager amount but also the items/services purchased.
S
Script or Point Redemption
The financial term for the cost of the cash back redemption. It is generally one of the larger expense items.
Segments
Defined groups within the database based on recent play and used to determine the offers the patron will qualify for.
Share
The portion of the spending that occurs at our facility vs. other entertainment organizations.
Slot Occupancy
A plan of action intended to accomplish a specific goal, using all the forces to execute approved plans as effectively as possible.
Stratification
To divide guests into a series of graded statuses or classes; i.e. dividing the database into tiered segments based on player type, etc.
T
Tactical (Tactical Execution)
An expedient for achieving a goal; a maneuver of less long-term significance than strategic operations or strategy.
Theoretical Win (or Theo Win or Twin)
The amount that the casino should win in theory, based on hold percentage and the random number generator or game type/odds. (coin-in x hold = theoretical win)
Tiers
Most often used to describe the defined groups within the player's club structure based on play and used to determine player's club benefits.
Trip(s)/Days
The frequency measure used in gaming. A defined period of time that starts when the player’s club card has been inserted and there has been play. The length of a trip and associated parameters vary widely.